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A money line is a bet on which side wins, with no point spread. A minus number marks the favorite and shows how much you’d risk to win $100. A plus number marks the underdog and shows what a $100 bet would win, so -150 means you risk $150 to win $100, and +130 means a $100 bet wins $130.
The same numbers tell you how likely the sportsbook thinks each side is to win, and how much it’s charging you to bet. Here’s the arithmetic for both.
Reading American odds
The $100 is only a reference point. The odds scale to any stake, so at -150 you win $2 for every $3 you risk, and at +130 every $10 you bet wins $13.
- Minus odds: profit = stake × 100 ÷ odds. A $20 bet at -150 wins $20 × 100 ÷ 150 = $13.33.
- Plus odds: profit = stake × odds ÷ 100. A $20 bet at +130 wins $20 × 130 ÷ 100 = $26.
When a bet wins you also get your stake back, so the $20 bet at -150 returns $33.33 in total. A line of +100 is even money: a $20 bet wins $20.
Turning odds into implied probability
Implied probability is the win rate at which a bet breaks even over time. It’s the chance of winning that the price assumes.
- Minus odds: odds ÷ (odds + 100). For -150, that’s 150 ÷ 250 = 60%.
- Plus odds: 100 ÷ (odds + 100). For +130, that’s 100 ÷ 230 = 43.48%.
| American odds | Implied probability | Decimal odds |
|---|---|---|
| -200 | 66.67% | 1.50 |
| -150 | 60.00% | 1.67 |
| -110 | 52.38% | 1.91 |
| +100 | 50.00% | 2.00 |
| +130 | 43.48% | 2.30 |
| +200 | 33.33% | 3.00 |
| +500 | 16.67% | 6.00 |
The -110 row is the one to remember. It’s the usual price on spreads and totals, and it means you need to win 52.38% of those bets to break even. Win exactly half and you lose money over time. Our article on 55 percent winners shows what a few extra points of win rate are worth.
Implied probability also lets you test your own opinion against the price. If you think a +130 underdog wins 48% of the time, the price assumes only 43.48%, so by your numbers the bet is worth more than it costs. If you think it wins 40% of the time, the price is too short and you’d pass.
Converting to decimal odds
Decimal odds show your total return for every $1 you bet, stake included. They’re common outside the US, and Bovada lets you switch its odds display to decimal under Profile Settings.
- Plus odds: 1 + (odds ÷ 100). +130 becomes 2.30.
- Minus odds: 1 + (100 ÷ odds), ignoring the minus sign. -150 becomes 1 + 0.667 = 1.67.
To convert back, a decimal of 2.00 or higher becomes plus odds with (decimal – 1) × 100, so 3.00 is +200. Below 2.00, use -100 ÷ (decimal – 1), so 1.95 is -100 ÷ 0.95, or about -105.
Decimal odds make implied probability quick as well. Divide 1 by the decimal: 1 ÷ 2.30 = 43.48%, the same answer as above.
The vig: how the sportsbook gets paid
Add up the implied probabilities for both sides of a game and the total comes to more than 100%. The extra is the sportsbook’s margin, known as the vig or juice.
Take a game priced at -150 for the favorite and +130 for the underdog. The favorite’s implied probability is 60% and the underdog’s is 43.48%, which adds up to 103.48%.
In dollars, say the book takes $60 on the favorite and $43.48 on the underdog, $103.48 in all. If the favorite wins, the book pays out $60 × 1.667 = $100. If the underdog wins, it pays out $43.48 × 2.30 = $100. Either way it keeps $3.48, or 3.36% of the money bet.
On a spread priced at -110 both ways, the total is 52.38% + 52.38% = 104.76%. Picture $110 bet on each side. The book takes in $220, pays the winner $210 and keeps $10, a 4.55% margin.
Finding the fair price
To estimate the price without the vig, divide each side’s implied probability by the total. For the -150/+130 game, that’s 60 ÷ 103.48 = 57.98% for the favorite and 43.48 ÷ 103.48 = 42.02% for the underdog. Those work out to fair odds of about -138 and +138.
So at -150 you’re laying $150 to win $100 on a team whose vig-free price is about -138. The gap between the two is what you’re paying the book on that side.
Why the vig is worth comparing
Books don’t all charge the same. A game at -105 on both sides adds up to 102.44%, a margin of 2.38%, and your break-even rate drops from 52.38% to 51.22%. That’s roughly half the margin of a -110 line.
If you can, check more than one book before you bet. Our guide to choosing an online sportsbook covers what else to compare.
Money line or point spread
A money line only asks who wins, while a point spread also asks by how much. When two teams are evenly matched the bets are nearly the same, but on a mismatch the favorite’s money line gets expensive. At -400 you risk $400 to win $100, and the price implies an 80% chance.
Bovada’s help page says it only offers NFL and college football money lines when the spread is between 1 and 17 points, and basketball money lines when it’s between 1 and 15.
Underdogs pay more because they lose more often. A +200 underdog has to win 33.33% of the time for you to break even, and a +500 longshot has to win 16.67% of the time.
Ties and sport-specific rules
- Two-way money lines: if the game ends tied, Bovada grades the bet a push and refunds your stake.
- Soccer: money lines are three-way, with either team or the draw. At Bovada, if you don’t take the draw and the game goes to extra time, your bet loses.
- Hockey: full-game money lines at Bovada include overtime and shootouts. Three-way hockey lines are settled on the score at the end of regulation.
- Baseball: the game has to go 5 innings (4½ if the home team is ahead) for a money line bet to count at Bovada, and you can choose whether the listed pitchers must start. Our guide to specifying pitchers explains when that matters.
Other books set their own rules, so check the house rules where you bet. Our guide to sports betting rules covers pushes, overtime and postponed games in more detail.
Our odds converter does these conversions for you and works out the vig on any two-sided line.
Bovada posts money lines on the major US sports, and you can view them in American or decimal odds. If your state has legal online sportsbooks, a state-licensed book gives you more protection than an offshore site like Bovada.
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Only bet what you’ve set aside to lose. If gambling has stopped being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738) for free, confidential help, 24/7, or chat online with the National Problem Gambling Helpline.
Sources
- Bovada help center: What is a Moneyline?, What are American Odds?, What are Decimal Odds?
- Bovada help center: Hockey betting rules, Baseball betting rules