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Handicapping an NFL game means working out what the point spread should be before you look at the sportsbook’s number. If your line and the market’s are far enough apart, you may have a bet. If they’re close, you pass. Most of the work goes into the team ratings behind your number, with smaller adjustments for things like injuries and rest.
Start with power ratings
A power rating is one number that says how many points better or worse a team is than an average team on a neutral field. An average team is 0. A strong team might be +6 and a weak one -5.
Most people start from point differential or efficiency stats such as yards per play. Some work backward from the spreads the market has posted. Whichever you use, move ratings slowly. A 17-game season is a small sample, and one blowout shouldn’t change your view of a team by much.
Turn your ratings into a line
To get a spread, subtract the visiting team’s rating from the home team’s and add something for home field. The old rule of thumb was 3 points. An Open Source Football analysis found home field was worth close to that across the 2006 to 2020 seasons, but that it had been shrinking since 2017. Test a smaller number against your own results instead of assuming 3.
Say your ratings have the home team at +4 and the visitor at -1. That’s 5 points on a neutral field. If you use 1.5 for home field, your line is home team -6.5.
Now compare it with the market. If the book has the home team at -3.5, you think the favorite is 3 points better than the market does, and that’s worth a closer look. If the book has -6, the gap is half a point, which isn’t enough to bet.
Some half-points are worth more than others. Field goals are worth 3 points and a touchdown with the extra point is worth 7, and 3 and 7 are the two most common final margins in the NFL. Getting a favorite at -2.5 instead of -3.5 matters much more than -5.5 instead of -6.5, because a 3-point win covers -2.5 and loses at -3.5.
Totals work the same way
For an over/under, estimate how many points each team will score in this matchup and add them up. If you have the home team scoring 24 and the visitor 20, your total is 44. With the book at 41.5, the over is worth a look. At 43.5, the gap is too small.
Wind and heavy rain can cut scoring, so check the forecast before you bet the total in an outdoor game.
Know what an edge has to look like
At the standard -110 you risk $110 to win $100, so you need to win 110 ÷ 210 = 52.38% of your bets to break even. The gap between breaking even and doing well is small. Here’s how 100 bets of $110 each work out:
| Record | Profit or loss |
|---|---|
| 55–45 | +$550 (55 × $100 minus 45 × $110) |
| 53–47 | +$130 |
| 52–48 | -$80 |
| 50–50 | -$500 |
Even the 55–45 record returns 5% of what you risked. The magic of 55 percent winners goes into why that figure gets so much attention.
The same thinking works for moneylines. If you think a team wins 60% of the time, its fair price is -150 (60 ÷ 40 × 100). A book offering -130 implies 130 ÷ 230 = 56.52%, below your 60%, so the price is in your favor if your estimate is right. At -175, which implies 63.64%, you’d pass.
Adjust for this week’s situation
Ratings describe a team at full strength in a normal week. The biggest weekly adjustment is usually the starting quarterback, and our guide to injuries and the point spread covers how to read the injury report. Rest can matter too, such as a team coming off its bye or one playing on Thursday, four days after a Sunday game.
Keep adjustments small and write each one down. Later you can check which ones helped your numbers and which just added noise.
Situational and technical angles
Handicappers often split the work into fundamental analysis (ratings and matchups), situational factors such as rest or a letdown after a big win, and technical analysis of past betting trends. Our guide to the three handicapping techniques explains each one.
Technical angles need the most care. Say you find a type of team that’s 8–2 against the spread in its last 10 games in some spot. If each of those games were a coin flip, 8–2 or better would still happen about 5.5% of the time. Look through 20 unrelated angles and there’s about a two-in-three chance at least one shows 8–2 or better by luck alone.
Before you trust an angle, make sure you can explain why it would work and that the line doesn’t already account for it.
Keep records and check your numbers
Log every bet with your own line next to the number and price you took. Also note the closing line, the last number before kickoff. If you took the home team at -3 and it closed at -4.5, the market moved your way after you bet.
Beating the closing line regularly suggests your numbers are picking up something the market later agreed with, which tells you more than a short win-loss record. It still doesn’t guarantee a profit.
Win-loss records take a long time to mean much. A bettor who truly wins 55% of the time will still be 52–48 or worse after 100 bets about 31% of the time. Someone winning at a coin-flip rate will be 55–45 or better about 18% of the time.
Losing runs are normal too. Over 100 bets, that same 55% bettor has about a 65% chance of losing five or more in a row at some point. Keep each bet small and the same size, so a bad run doesn’t tempt you to bet more to win it back.
If you’re considering Bovada, our Bovada review explains how it works and the risks of using a sportsbook no US state licenses.
Once you have your own numbers, you can compare them with Bovada’s NFL lines. If you live in a state with legal online sportsbooks, a state-licensed book gives you more protection, because it answers to a state regulator if something goes wrong.
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Sources
- Open Source Football: Analyzing Home Field Advantage in the NFL (Adrian Cadena, January 2021)
- NFL.com: NFL plans to expand regular season to 17 games per team in 2021