We earn a commission if you open a Bovada account through links on this page.
A streak on its own is a weak reason to bet on or against an NFL team. Long runs of covers turn up by chance every season, and the point spread moves as a team keeps winning, so the market has usually priced in whatever the streak shows. What matters is why the team has been covering and whether this week’s number already reflects it.
What counts as a streak
Most headlines count straight-up wins and losses. Bettors care more about covers against the spread (ATS) and about over/under results, meaning whether games finished above or below the posted total.
If a team is a 6-point favorite, it covers by winning by 7 or more. A 6-point win is a push and your stake comes back, and anything less loses. So a team can win five games in a row and fail to cover in all five.
Streaks happen by chance more than you’d think
Suppose every game against the spread were a 50/50 coin flip, with no pushes. Over a 17-game season, each team would have about a 21% chance of covering at least five in a row at some point. Across 32 teams, you’d expect six or seven of them to put together a five-game cover streak from luck alone, and about as many to go five straight games without a cover.
| Cover streak during the season | Chance for one team | Teams you’d expect, out of 32 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 or more in a row | 41.7% | 13.3 |
| 5 or more in a row | 21.0% | 6.7 |
| 6 or more in a row | 10.0% | 3.2 |
| 7 or more in a row | 4.7% | 1.5 |
A six-game cover streak sounds remarkable when it’s flashed on a pregame show. Coin flips would still produce about three of them across the league in a typical season. The same math applies to over/under runs.
The line moves with the streak
Oddsmakers watch the same results you do. When a team keeps covering, they rate it higher and more bettors want it, so its spreads tend to grow.
Say a team was a 3-point home underdog against an average opponent in September. After five straight covers, it might be a 3-point favorite in the same kind of game. That’s a 6-point swing, and the team now has to clear the higher number to keep the streak going.
If the market has rerated the team correctly, the next cover is back to about a coin flip. At -110 you risk $110 to win $100, so you need to win 110 ÷ 210 = 52.38% of your bets to break even. A bet that wins half the time loses an average of $5 for every $110 you risk.
Betting against a streak has the same problem
Betting against a hot team because it’s “due” to lose is the gambler’s fallacy. A coin doesn’t remember its last five flips, and five straight covers don’t make a sixth less likely on their own. The same goes for backing a cold team because it’s due to cover. If you bet against a streak, do it because you think the line has moved too far, which is something you can check.
Football results aren’t pure coin flips, though. A team can get better during a season as a young quarterback settles in or injured starters return, and it can get worse when key players go down. A streak is worth a closer look when you can point to a change like that and the line hasn’t caught up.
How to check whether a streak means anything
Stats sites such as Pro Football Reference list each team’s spread, total and result against the line for every game. Pull up the games in the streak and look at how the covers happened. Here’s a made-up 5–0 run:
| Game | Spread | Result | Covered by |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.5 | Lost by 3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | -2.5 | Won by 3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | +6 | Lost by 2 | 4 |
| 4 | -1 | Won by 17 | 16 |
| 5 | -3 | Won by 4 | 1 |
Three of those five covers came down to a point or less. One more field goal for the opponent in any of those three games would have cost the cover, and if all three had gone that way, this team would be 2–3 against the spread. A run built on comfortable margins tells you more than one built on narrow covers.
A few other things to check:
- Who they played. Covers against backup quarterbacks or teams near the bottom of the standings may say more about the opponents.
- What changed. A new starting quarterback or a star back from injury can explain a real improvement. See injuries and the NFL point spread for how lineup news moves lines.
- How far the line has moved. Compare this week’s spread with the ones the team was getting when the streak started. A big move means the market already agrees the team is better.
- How unusual it really is. At a coin flip, a team goes 5–0 against the spread over a given five games 1 time in 32. With 32 teams, you’d expect about one 5–0 team and one 0–5 team over any five-game stretch.
Over/under streaks
Totals streaks work the same way. A team whose games keep going over will usually see higher totals posted, so the next over needs more points. If a team’s totals started the season around 41.5 and it went over five straight times, its next total might be 46.5. Betting the over at 46.5 is a different bet from the over at 41.5, even though the streak looks the same.
Look for reasons a totals run could continue, such as a change at quarterback or a defense that has lost several starters. Weather can also push totals around, especially late in the season, and a run of unders in bad conditions may not carry over to a game indoors. NFL betting and weather conditions covers what to watch.
Where streaks fit in your handicapping
Use a streak as a reason to look closer. If your own ratings already say the market is too low on a team, a cover streak may be the market catching up to what you saw. If the streak is the only reason you like a bet, you’re betting on something the line has probably already absorbed. Our guide to NFL handicapping shows how to build your own line to compare with the market’s.
If you’re weighing up Bovada for NFL betting, our Bovada review covers how it works and what you give up with a sportsbook no US state licenses.
Bovada posts spreads and totals for NFL games each week, so you can compare a streaking team’s current number with where its lines started. If you live in a state with legal online sportsbooks, a state-licensed book gives you more protection, because it answers to a state regulator if something goes wrong.
Affiliate link. 18+ (or older where your state requires). Not available in 19 states and Washington, DC.
Only bet what you’ve set aside to lose. If gambling has stopped being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738) for free, confidential help, 24/7, or chat online with the National Problem Gambling Helpline.