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The appeal of NHL totals is that they’re easy to compare. Most games sit at 5.5, 6 or 6.5 goals, so books often move the juice instead of the number, and you can shop the same total across books for the best price. To bet them well, you also need to know how overtime, shootouts and empty-net goals count, and who’s starting in goal.
That doesn’t make totals easy to beat. Books set them carefully, and the juice on a shaded total can be steep.
How NHL totals are priced
Hockey is low scoring, so one goal is a big share of the total. Moving a total from 5.5 to 6.5 is a much bigger change than moving an NFL total by a point. Books tend to leave the number alone and adjust the price instead.
You might see over 5.5 at -135 and under 5.5 at +115, or over 6.5 at +105 and under 6.5 at -125. A price like over 5.5 at -135 means the book thinks the over is more likely than the under at that number, but not by enough to move the total up. Here’s what the common prices require:
| Price | Break-even win rate | $110 bet wins |
|---|---|---|
| -135 | 57.45% | $81.48 |
| -120 | 54.55% | $91.67 |
| -110 | 52.38% | $100.00 |
| +100 | 50.00% | $110.00 |
| +115 | 46.51% | $126.50 |
Going from -110 to -135 raises the win rate you need by about 5 percentage points. That’s what you pay to take the side the book has shaded toward.
Comparing 5.5 and 6
A whole-number total like 6 can push, which gives you a choice between numbers. Say you like the over and one book has over 5.5 at -135 while another has over 6 at -110. With $100 at risk:
- 7 or more goals: over 5.5 wins $74.07 and over 6 wins $90.91.
- Exactly 6 goals: over 5.5 wins $74.07 and over 6 pushes.
- 5 or fewer: both lose $100.
The 5.5 bet gains $74.07 when the game lands on exactly 6 and gives up $16.84 when it goes to 7 or more. $74.07 is 4.4 times $16.84, so 5.5 at -135 is the better choice when a 6-goal game is more than about 23% as likely as a game with 7 or more (1 ÷ 4.4). The same method works for any two prices.
Overtime and shootouts count
A regular-season NHL game tied after 60 minutes goes to five minutes of sudden-death 3-on-3 overtime, then to a shootout if nobody scores. Playoff games have no shootout. They keep playing full 20-minute periods of 5-on-5 until someone scores.
At Bovada, overtime counts toward full-game bets. For games decided by a shootout, only one goal goes to the winning team, however many shootout goals are scored. So a game tied 3-3 after overtime and won in a shootout goes down as 4-3, a total of 7.
A game tied after regulation always ends with exactly one more goal on the board, whether it’s decided in overtime or a shootout. So if a game is 3-3 after 60 minutes, the final total will be 7. Under 6.5 has lost and over 6.5 has won before overtime even starts. A game tied 2-2 will finish at 5, so under 5.5 has already won.
Many books also offer regulation-only or 60-minute markets that ignore overtime and shootouts, often with a three-way line where a tie is its own result. Check which market you’re betting before you confirm.
Empty-net goals
A team trailing late usually pulls its goalie for an extra attacker. That can lead to an empty-net goal for the leading team, or a late goal for the trailing team. Either one adds to the total, so a 3-2 game in the final two minutes can end 4-2 or 3-3.
These late goals are part of why an under can look safe with a few minutes left and still lose. Box scores list the time of every goal, so you can check how often a team’s games change in the final minutes.
Goalie confirmations
The starting goalie is one of the biggest single factors in a hockey total. A backup, or a starter playing the second night of a back-to-back, can change what a total should be. Teams don’t always name their starter in advance, so the goalie you expect isn’t always the one who plays.
Bovada’s hockey rules don’t mention goalies or describe a listed-goalie option like baseball’s listed pitchers, so assume your bet stands whoever starts. Some hockey sites track projected starters and mark each one as confirmed or unconfirmed. Waiting for confirmation may cost you a better price, but you’ll know who’s in net.
When you look at a goalie’s numbers, use save percentage over a decent sample rather than a record in a few games against one team. Goalie results swing a lot from game to game. Our guide to short-term vs long-term trends explains why small samples mislead, and the same thinking applies here.
Other things to check
- Schedule. Teams playing the second game of a back-to-back may be tired or start their backup.
- Special teams. Games with a lot of penalties mean more power plays, which tend to create more scoring chances.
- Price shopping. Two books can post the same total at different prices. Over 6 at -110 is a better bet than over 6 at -125.
- The rules on shortened games. At Bovada, a hockey game is official for betting after 55 minutes of play.
The same number-versus-price comparison comes up in baseball, where totals can land on 8.5, 9 or 9.5. Our guide to finding the best number for baseball totals walks through it.
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Bovada posts NHL game lines, including totals. Compare its price on the total you like with the other books you use.
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Sources
- Bovada help center: Hockey betting rules, What are Totals (Over/Under)?
- Bovada: NHL betting odds