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A reverse line move is when most of the bets on a game land on one side but the line moves toward the other. In baseball you usually see it on the moneyline, when a favorite takes most of the tickets and its price still gets cheaper. It can mean bigger or better-informed money is on the underdog, though it doesn’t tell you who will win.
By the time you spot one, the better price has usually gone. What’s worth your time is working out why the line moved.
How baseball lines move
Reverse moves in baseball usually show up on the moneyline, where you pick the winner and the odds do the job a point spread does in football. At -150 you risk $150 to win $100. At +140 a $100 bet wins $140. Our guide to moneylines covers the basics.
A book moves its price for two broad reasons. One is news, such as a scratched starting pitcher or a change to the lineup. The other is the money coming in. Books don’t weigh every bet the same, and one large bet from an account the book respects can move a line further than hundreds of small ones.
Baseball prices move in cents. A favorite going from -150 to -140 is a 10-cent move.
What a reverse move looks like
Say the home team opens at -150 and the road team at +140. Through the day, 75% of the bets come in on the home team, so you’d expect the home price to climb toward -160. Instead, by first pitch the home team is -140 and the road team is +130.
The favorite got cheaper even though most people bet on it. In implied probability, the market’s estimate for the home team fell from 60% to about 58.3%, and the road team’s rose from about 41.7% to 43.5%.
| Team | Opening price | Price at first pitch | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | -150 | -140 | 60.0% to 58.3% |
| Road | +140 | +130 | 41.7% to 43.5% |
The number of bets and the amount of money are different things. If 300 people bet $20 each on the home team and 100 people bet an average of $100 on the road team, the home side has 75% of the tickets but only $6,000 of the $16,000 wagered. A book watching its risk would move toward the road team.
Other reasons a line moves against most of the bets
Sharp money, meaning bets from people the book considers skilled, is only one explanation. Check for these first:
- Pitching news. A scratched or changed starter can move a moneyline a long way. If you bet with listed pitchers, a change voids your bet instead of leaving you with a price set for a different matchup. Our guide to specifying pitchers explains the options.
- Lineups and injuries, such as a regular getting the day off.
- The book following the market. Books watch each other, so a move at one book may have started somewhere else. A fast move across many books at once is often called steam.
- Incomplete betting data. The percentages you see online usually come from one book or a small group of books, so they may not reflect the whole market.
What to do when you see one
Look for the reason first. Check the probable pitchers on MLB.com, the posted lineups and any injury news. If a starter changed, you’ve found your explanation, and it has nothing to do with who bet what.
Then see whether the move shows up at several books or only one. A price that moved across the market tells you more than a single book adjusting its own exposure.
Keep the price in mind. In the example, anyone who wants the road team after the move gets +130 instead of +140. At +130 you need to win 43.5% of the time to break even, up from 41.7% at +140. Following a move means accepting the worse number.
Don’t turn reverse moves into a system you bet every day. A move shows what the market thinks at that moment. Whether following those moves would have made you money is something to test on your own records first.
How to track line moves yourself
Your own records are the most reliable way to learn whether line moves help you. For each game you look at, write down:
- The opening price when the line first appears, and where your betting percentages come from.
- The price when you bet, and the price at first pitch. The price at first pitch is the closing line.
- The reason for the move, if you found one.
- The result, and whether your price beat the closing line.
Beating the closing line means you got a better price than the final one, such as taking the road team at +140 when it closed at +130. Many bettors use it to judge their process, because a win-loss record needs a big sample before it means much.
A 100-bet record is a small sample. Someone who wins half their even-money bets in the long run finishes 56-44 or better over 100 bets about 14% of the time. Our guide to short-term vs long-term trends goes into sample size in more detail.
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Bovada posts MLB moneylines, run lines and totals. If you’re tracking moves, it’s one more price to record alongside the books you already check.
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Sources
- Bovada: MLB betting odds, What is a Moneyline?
- MLB.com: Probable pitchers